I thought it was brilliant of Trump to appeal to working class voters by doing a shift at McDonald’s, but I wonder if he or his team got the idea from watching Oprah (who herself may have got the idea from Letterman).
Back in 2002 the World’s most powerful woman shocked Chicago McDonald’s customers by donning an apron and working the drive thru. Seeing as she’s also arguably the World’s biggest brained woman, I would have expected her to do a more efficient job, but then being too competent would not have made for good TV.
The most interesting part was when one of Oprah’s lawyers complained about the slowest service he has ever had not knowing it was his billionaire boss who was working the cash!
By equating polygenic Z scores for education to the IQ scale (mean white score = 100; SD = 15) I was able to tenatively assign very rough “genetic” IQs to 11 populations and a very clear pattern emerges. Those with cold climate ancestry (Mongoloids) average higher IQs than those with temperate climate ancestry (Caucasoids) who in turn average higher IQs than those with tropical ancestry (Negroids).
But within each broad climate category, those who made the neolithic transition average much higher IQs than those who generally remained hunter/gatherers.
So the selection pressures of going from the tropics to Northern Siberia added up to 15 points to genetic IQ on average, but then transitioning to agriculture and subsequent civilization added up to another 20 IQ points.
This makes sense because after 25 million years living as tropical hunter-gatherers, leaving the tropics and adopting agriculture each would have selected for enormous adaptability.
This helps explains why despite our species being a few hundred thousand years old, we didn’t discover agriculture until 10,000 years ago, didn’t invent civilization until a few thousand years ago, and didn’t start the industrial revolution until a few hundred years ago. We were waiting for the IQ points
Wikipedia has an interesting chart showing how many blacks have been in the U.S. senate at different times over the last 235 years. Amazingly, it seems to consistently average around 0.5 from 1789 all the way to 2010, and then suddenly in 2013, the average triples to 1.5, and even that average has doubled to 3 since 2017. Note that the number of black senators is roughly equal to the percentage of the senate that is black since there’s been 100 senators for well over half a century and there were already 76 by 1870.
Now you may say “AmeriKKKa” is still an incredibly racist country since 14% of the country is black, but blacks have never been more than 4% of the U.S. senate.
However we have to consider that America is arguably a meritocracy, and last time I checked, black Americans are still 15 IQ points to below white Americans, and 13 points below all Americans. This matters because it’s estimated that 41% of the U.S. senate has IQs in the top 1% (+2.33 standard deviations (SD)) and thus the average U.S. senator is around +2.07 SD.
Given that IQ predicts how much power you’ll have in this World (r = 0.45), the median senator is probably +2.07 SD/0.45 = +4.6 SD in power (on a normalized curve), suggesting only one in 473,000 U.S. adults (age 25+) has that kind of power. Cutting that rarity in half, we can infer the the lowliest U.S. senator is at the one in 237,000 level (+4.47 SD). That suggests that of the 232 million Americans aged 25+, about 979 are either one of the 100 senators, or someone even more powerful (a U.S. governor, billionaire, high court judge, President etc).
Now how many of these 979 would we expect to be black? Well, if the average black IQ still tests at 0.87 SD below the U.S. mean (still waiting for the WAIS-5 to release their demographic data), and if IQ correlates 0.45 with power, then the the distribution of black power will be shifted 0.45(+0.87 SD) = 0.39 SD to the left of the overall U.S. distribution. That means that if the odds of achieving at least senator level power are one in 237,000 for Americans in general (+4.47 SD), they will be one in 1.76 million (4.47 SD + 0.39 SD = +4.86 SD) for black Americans. Now given that there are about 32 million black Americans over 25, that’s only 18 people, or 1.83% of the 979 Americans who are at least as powerful as a senator.
And yet prior to 2013, it appears blacks have never been more than 1.3% of the U.S. senate and as recently as 2010, were 0%. What this suggests is that prior to around 2013, there was significant white privilege to the point where even high IQ blacks were outdistanced by equally intelligent whites, despite affirmative action propelling blacks forward.
Then around 2013 it was pretty much a color blind society, with blacks averaging almost the 1.83% representation in the U.S. senate that their IQ distribution would predict.
But since 2017, that 1.83% representation has been greatly exceeded on average and it’s arguably been better to be black. We started hearing about people like Rachel Dolezal and Jessica Krug who pretended to be black to get ahead, a stunning reversal of hundreds of years of light skinned blacks desperately “passing” for white to escape racism.
This dramatic change may also explain why in 2008, Barack Obama needed to be more intelligent than most white Presidents to be considered a viable candidate, but in 2024, Kamala Harris is not being held to quite the same standards.
Of America’s 76 million baby boomers (alive or dead), only three grew up to be President of the United States (so far). If we crudely assume being President is the pinnacle of power, the Presidency puts you at the top one in 25 million level. The median U.S. president would therefore be at the one in 50 million level in power (normalized Z = +5.47). Very tentative data suggests the average IQ of U.S. Presidents is 137 (+2.47), thus suggesting the regression slope predicting IQ from power = +0.45 (very similar to the correlation between IQ and lifetime income).
Biodemographic prediction
As of 2019, there were about 65 million Americans in Generation X, and assuming they resemble Americans as a whole, about 1.8% are Afro-multiracial, which gives 1.17 million people. On a scale where white Americans average IQ 100 with a standard deviation of 15, black Americans average 85, and “pure” U.S. blacks average 80, Afromultiracials would average about 90. If there were a perfect correlation between IQ and power, we’d expect Kamala Harris to have an IQ 72 points higher (one in 1.17 million) than the average Afromultiracial, however since the correlation is only 0.45, we’d expect her to be 72(0.45) = 32 points above the average IQ 90 Afromultiracial, or roughly 122. If true this would put her intelligence in the superior range, though the lower end there of.
However guessing someone’s IQ from only their race and power is unwise. What is needed is actual test data.
Psychometric confirmation?
Harris has no publicly known IQ scores so we’ll have to settle for the bar exam as a crude measure of her intelligence.
So she scored lower than 72.2% of California law students, suggesting she was in the bottom 27.8% of law students. However the LA Times reports:
So when we subtract that 4,909 people like Harris who took the test the first time, we see 2,088 were repeat test takers (which Harris would become the next year). How many of the repeat takers passed like Harris would the next year? Subtract 72.2% of 4,909 from 59.5% of 6,997. In other word, 619 out of 2,088 or the top 30%.
So despite being in the bottom 27% of all law students for not passing the first time, Harris was in the top 30% of that bottom 27% for not failing a second time. In other words she’d be around the 19th percentile of law students.
“The average national LSAT score for full-time, first-year JD enrollees for fall 2022 was about 159” according to bestcolleges.com. The 19th percentile would be 0.87 standard deviations less so about 150 given the SD on the LSAT is 10. A 150 LSAT would equate to an IQ of 111 or roughly 116 (U.S. norms) in Harris’s day when the average IQ of college grads and by extension, LSAT takers was higher. This converts to 114 using white norms, so 8 points lower than expected for America’s most powerful hybridized black, but still higher than 82% of white Americans.
Of course the Bar exam is not an actual IQ test so this remains only a rough guestimate.
In 1991, Daniel Seligman wrote “Nixon biographer Roger Morris says RMN tested at 143 on the Otis test when he was in Fullerton High School in California. Nixon attended Fullerton circa 1928 and thus was tested around age 15.
In a 1930 paper by P. Cattell, it’s noted that 108 on the Otis index of brightness equates to the 75th percentile, implying a standard deviation of about 12, which would make Nixon’s IQ a spectacular 154 on the now commonly used sigma 15 scale (white norms since tests in that era were normed only on whites).
Barack Obama
140
139
Likely scored around 43.5 out of 48 on the 1980s LSAT which equates to an IQ of 148, but reportedly scored 128 on the childhood WISC IQ test (likely 124 after adjusting for norm inflation). A composite score of both tests would be around 140 (U.S. norms)
Average IQ of self-made Presidents (n = 2)
standard deviation
147 (U.S. norms)
10 (U.S. norms)
147 (U.S. white norms)
11 (U.S. white norms)
Legacy President
IQ (U.S. norms)
IQ (U.S. white norms)
Notes
George W. Bush
130
129
National norm studies suggest that if all American 17-year-olds had taken the SAT in 1960 (not just the college bound elite) the mean and SD would have been 784 and 210 respectively, making Bush’s score of 1206, +2 SD or IQ 130 (U.S. norms)
JFK
125
124
In 1991, Daniel Seligman wrote about how Kennedy biographer Thomas C. Reeves claimed JFK tested at 119 on the Otis test just before entering Choate Academy. JFK entered Choate around 1931 and thus was tested around age 14.
In a 1930 paper by P. Cattell, it’s noted that 108 on the Otis index of brightness equates to the 75th percentile, implying a standard deviation of about 12, which would make JFK’s IQ 124 on the now commonly used sigma 15 scale (white norms since tests in that era were normed only on whites).
Average IQ of legacy Presidents n = 2
standard deviation
128 (U.S. norms)
4 (U.S. norms)
127 (U.S. white norms)
4 (U.S. white noms)
Average IQ of all Presidents n = 4
standard deviation
137 (U.S. norms)
13 (U.S. norms)
137 (U.S. white norms)
13 (U.S. white norms)
Because sample sizes are tiny, only tentative conclusions can be drawn but based on publicly available data, the average IQ of self-made U.S. Presidents is an astonishing 147 suggesting only one in a thousand (white) Americans have an intellect this high. To come from nothing to become the most powerful person in America (and by extension the World) requires considerable intellect in most cases. This is similar to my earlier finding that the average IQ of all living people to hold the title “richest self-made American” is 151.
Whether measured by money or political power, it seems America is a meritocracy, at least when it comes to IQ. Ethics might be a different story.
To quote the late great Daniel Seligman. “people who are at the top in American life are probably there because they’re more intelligent than the rest of us.”
Given the 0.45 IQ correlation between fathers and sons, we’d expect the sons of self-made U.S. Presidents to be only 45% as far above the mean of 100 as their fathers were, and thus IQ 121. And so it’s not surprising that legacy Presidents average somewhat higher at 127 (white norms). This suggests that even among children born into obscenely rich and powerful families, there’s still some meritocracy, with the smarter ones being able to replicate the achievements of their self-made fathers and the less bright ones, squandering the family legacy.
After playing the decisive role in electing America’s first black President, America’s first multibillionaire black accepts her medal.
In a previous post I argued that Obama reportedly scored 43.5 on the LSAT, and that since the ratio of whites to blacks in this score range is about 99 to one, it can be deduced that his score equated to an IQ of 129, since that’s the expected ratio of whites to blacks in this IQ range.
However such ratios assume a perfectly normal curve in both races and in fact there might be more blacks with high IQs than the normal curve predicts, because like Obama, many black Americans are not only largely white genetically, but even their black ancestry is hyper-elite, descended from the most educated immigrants, and not from the slave trade.
Because these atypical blacks could skew the numbers, I decided to equate the 1980s LSAT to IQ using the same technique Ron Hoeflin used to equate Mega Test scores to IQ: score pairing.
Using data from nine people with reported scores on both the 1980s LSAT and tests with known IQ equivalencies (SAT/Mega Test), placing scores in rank order from highest to lowest and then equating scores of equal rank, I obtained the following formula for equating the tests:
IQ (U.S. norms) = [(LSAT – 41.5)/4.5](13) + 142
Applying this formula to Obama’s LSAT score of about 43.5 gives an astonishing IQ of 148 (U.S. norms); also 148 (white norms).
The notion that Obama has an IQ pushing 150 is consistent with what Lion of the Blogosphere has been arguing for years, which he based mostly on the fact that Obama graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law. Though ironically, Obama’s LSAT IQ of 148 would actually have been below the Harvard Law average which at the time would have been about IQ 152.
However given that Harvard Law class was constructed to have an average IQ of 152, they would have regressed to the mean of all LSAT takers (IQ 116) and thus average IQ 138 (U.S. norms), and assuming Obama did not regress (since his score was a random sample of his ability and not an intrinsic property), or regressed to a much higher mean (the mean of self-made Harvard Law star Presidents who wrote first rate memoirs) he’d tower over his classmates intellectually.
However a self-proclaimed former CIA guy claims Obama scored IQ 128 on the WISC IQ test as a child, which after corrections for the Flynn effect, becomes 124. This too is a very high score, but nowhere near 148.
Assuming a 0.61 correlation between the LSAT and the Wechsler, then an LSAT IQ of 148 and a Wechsler IQ of 124 give a composite IQ of 140. Perhaps this is our single best guess.
I’ve blogged about this before but I wanted to revisit it now that I have better data.
Harvard undergrads 1991: SAT IQ 147; expected WAIS IQ 129
Harvard undergrads from the class of 1995 (and thus took their SATs around 1991, had a mean SAT score of 1390. National norm studies suggest that if all American 17-year-olds, not just the college-bound elite, had taken the SAT in this era, the mean would have been 787 with a standard deviation (SD) of 193. Thus by general population standards, 1390 was +3.12 or IQ 147 (U.S. norms); 147 (white norms).
However because Harvard students were selected by SAT scores, they were selected in part for SAT overperformance. We saw this with Dartmouth students who scored only about 61% as well on the WAIS IQ test as they did on the SAT. Assuming the same would have happened to Harvard students circa 1991, instead of scoring 47 points above the U.S. mean, on the WAIS they’d score 47(0.61) = 29, so IQ 129 (U.S. norms); IQ 128 (white norms). Indeed a study by Harvard scholar Shelley H Carson found that in the early 21st century, Harvard students averaged around 130 IQ on the abbreviated WAIS-R and that was BEFORE deductions for inflated norms.
Harvard Law students 1980s: LSAT IQ 152; Expected WAIS IQ 137
I could not find the mean LSAT scores of Harvard Law students from the same era, but I did find a source (see table 7 of this paper) that the top 19 law schools in the 1980s had mean LSAT scores of 40 to 45 out of 48. It is likely that Harvard Law was the law school with a 45 point mean. My own preliminary research suggests that a 45 out of 48 on the 1980s LSAT equated to an IQ of 152 (U.S. norms); IQ 152 (white norms).
They too would regress to the mean except instead of regressing to the general U.S. mean of 100, LSAT takers are pre-selected by university so they would have regressed to the much higher mean of LSAT takers which would have been 116.
Average Harvard Law student WAIS IQ = (LSAT IQ – 116)(0.61) + 116
Average Harvard Law student WAIS IQ = (152 – 116)(0.61) + 116
Average Harvard Law student WAIS IQ = (36)(0.61) + 116
Average Harvard Law student WAIS IQ = 138 (U.S. noms); 137 (white norms)
Some readers might argue that if the WAIS-SAT correlation is 0.61, the WAIS-LSAT correlation should be lower, given it’s a more restricted sample, however surprisingly, people who take graduate school admission tests appear to be at least as variable as the general population.
Some readers may wonder why I regress Harvard Law students to the LSAT population when I don’t regress Harvard undergrads to the SAT population but rather the general population. The reason is, above about the top 1%, all members of the general population took the SAT, so regressing them to the SAT population would have been redundant.
Conclusion
Even though the Harvard Law > Harvard undergrad IQ gap was only 5 points when measured by the tests used to select them respectively (LSAT IQ 152 vs SAT IQ 147); the gap should nearly double if they were given a test independent of the admission process (WAIS IQ 137 vs WAIS IQ 128). This is a reminder that we should never measure the IQ of a group by the test used to select them and consistent with the general rule that law students are about 10 IQ points smarter than undergrads, though unlike Harvard, at a typical university circa 1990, the respective scores would have been around 120 vs 110.
Jon Gotti (aka Dapper Don) and Donald Trump have a lot in common. Both charismatic New York proles who loved media attention; both persecuted by the feds and heroes to the working class man, to the point they were long considered Teflon, though both became convicted felons. Both rose to the pinnacle of cut-throat fields using charm, street smarts, and animal cunning.
Of course Trump was an Ivy League Leader of the Free World, while Gotti was “just” a high school dropout leader of the mob. Trump is worth over $3 billion, while Gotti died with “only” $30 million.
However when you consider that Trump’s father was a Forbes certified 400 richest person in all of America, while Gotti’s dad was a barely employed day laborer living in poverty, then both men were freakishly successful, relative to what they came from.
As I’ve previously noted, welfare or welfare adjacent people like Gotti’s dad average IQs around 92 (about 90 white norms) and given a 0.45 father-son IQ correlation, their sons would upwardly regress to the then U.S. mean of 98, (white norms) and thus average IQs of 96.
Thus when Gotti famously scored 110 on an IQ test before dropping out of high school (white norms since IQ tests were normed on only whites in those days), he scored 14 points above the mean of kids from his economic background.
Meanwhile self-made Forbes 400 types like Trump’s dad average IQs around 131(130 white norms) so their sons would regress downward to the U.S. mean of 98 (white norms) giving a mean IQ of 112. So given that Trump is to his family background as Gotti was to his, how much higher would Trump have scored compared to the mean of kids from his economic background?
Indeed in 2018, Trump’s doctor claimed he scored perfect on a dementia screening test, suggesting an IQ of 126 (white norms). Of course given he hit the test’s ceiling (if you believe the doctor was giving his professional assessment free of intimidation from Trump and his goons) it’s possible his IQ is even higher, though given his tiny active vocab, poor general knowledge, and failure to correctly multiply 17 by 6, I wouldn’t bet on it.
8:14 pm: On her way to the event Oprah says she was stopped by a black man who said he was voting for Trump because he gave him a cheque
8:16 pm: Lots of star power joining by zoom: Meryl Streep, Chris Rock, Ben Stiller, Julia Roberts, Jennifer Lopez etc
8:28 pm: A black guy is asking Harris about the border. Harris says she’s prosecuted transnational gangs & she’s blaming Trump for blocking a bill that would have put 1500 security agents on the border because “he preferred to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem”. That should be her campaign add!
8:35 pm. Harris just promised to reintroduce and sign that bill
8:44 pm Harris is very Indian in her speech and mannerisms but she has enough black heritage to advance Oprah’s ethnic genetic interests.
8:46 pm: Merryl Streep is crying because a girl who was raped by her step-dad got pregnant and needs an abortion
8:49 pm: Some U.S. blacks don’t like Haitian immigrants either so it was very smart of Oprah to note earlier that the lies about cat eating not only endanger Haitians, but anyone who LOOKS Haitian
9:07: Tracy Ellis Ross used her her high Ashkenazi verbal genes to give a quality monologue honoring childless women but the audience laughed at her for addressing Harris before first kissing Oprah’s ring. Julia Roberts knew better.
9:23 pm: The BRILLIANT Merryl Streep just asked the best question of the year: “What happens when you win, and HE doesn’t accept it”
9:26 pm: I guarantee Trump is watching this.
10:12 pm: CNN is covering the event. Abbey Philip’s noted that Oprah already elevated Obama to the White House and is asking if she can do it again.
Perhaps the most comprehensive study of American Jewish IQ was a 1958 paper on 64 Yeshiva men (age 16 to 31; mean age 21.43). Author Boris M. Levinson states:
Our sample finally consisted of 64 subjects, classified as follows : (a) six senior Yeshiva High School students, (b) 31 Yeshiva College students, (c) 27 graduate students. Among them were four ordained rabbis. Every graduate student was an alumnus of Yeshiva College. The writer believes that the sample secured was fairly representative of the Yeshiva population…
Below are the scores of the sample on the original Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS). The 11 subtest scores are expressed on a scale where the average American scores 10 (SD = 3), and the verbal, performance, and full-scale IQs are expressed on a scale where the average American scores 100 (SD = 15). To convert scaled scores to IQ equivalents, just multiply by 5 and then add 50. Because the study, was submitted for publication in 1957 and the WAIS was standardized in 1953.5, there was a trivial Flynn effect I adjusted for.
Unfortunately, this study was restricted to the Yeshiva population who, despite their religiosity, are presumably more educated than the general Jewish American population. However if we assume Yeshiva young adults were somewhat equivalent to Jewish university students (which I suspect virtually almost all of them were or would become), then it’s possible to adjust their scores downward to estimate how the average Jewish American would have scored.
But first we need to know how the WAIS correlated with education among young adults in the 1950s, and fortunately David Wechsler published that data on page 251 of his book The Measurement and Appraisal of ADULT INTELLIGENCE Fourth Edition.
WAIS measures
Correlation with education in 1952.5 (age 25-34) n=300
Information
0.655
Comprehension
0.511
Arithmetic
0.490
Similarities
0.522
Digit Span
0.421
Vocabulary
0.649
Digit Symbol
0.590
Picture Completion
0.441
Block Design
0.397
Picture Arrangement
0.476
Object Assembly
0.349
Verbal Score
0.662
Performance Score
0.570
Total Score
0.658
The next question that needs to be answered is how educated were Jewish university students in the 1950s, compared to the general U.S. Jewish population. According to Diana B. Turk of Jewish Women’s Archives,: “By 1960, sixty-three percent of Jewish men and women aged eighteen though twenty-four attended college” This suggests Jewish university students were half a standard deviation more educated than America’s average Jewish young adult.
On a scale where all Americans average IQ 100 (SD = 15) and scaled scores of 10 (SD = 3), if we crudely assume, that Jewish Americans have the same IQ standard deviation as American whites (SD = 14.5 and 2.9 respectively) and the same correlations with education as Americans as a whole, and further assuming a bivariate normal distribution, we can simply take the product of half the Jewish standard deviation and the correlation between IQ and education and subtract it from the median scores in the Yeshiva sample (adjusted for the Flynn effect) to get the general U.S. Jewish average.
This gives the following:
U.S. norms
U.S. white norms
Information
14.89
Comprehension
15
Arithmetic
13.15
Similarities
11.93
Digit Span
12.3
Vocabulary
12.8
Digit Symbol
10.88
Picture Completion
11.1
Block Design
10.28
Picture Arrangement
9.2
Object Assembly
8.3
Verbal IQ
121
120
Performance IQ
98
96
Full-scale IQ
112
110
My analysis suggests the average American Jew has a verbal IQ of 120 (white norms) and a Performance IQ of 96. Until a representative sample of Jewish Americans take a comprehensive test, it’s hard to know how accurate my estimate is.
Of course there have been such studies of Jewish school children, and because virtually everyone attends school in childhood, these are arguably more representative of the general Jewish population. After adjusting for the Flynn effect, Richard Lynn reported two such studies in Canada on page 117 of The Global Bell Curve:
Note that in the first study, spatial IQ refers to Wechsler performance IQ (though the two constructs are not identical )Averaging across both studies, the average verbal IQ is 115 (white norms)and the average “spatial IQ” is 102. This gives a verbal > spatial/performance IQ gap of 13 points (much smaller than the 24 point gap I estimated) however Lynn is citing childhood IQ, and Daniel Seligman notes in his book A Question of Intelligence:
Some studies show rising verbal scores as the Jewish children pass through school, but the reasons for this increase are unclear. Some scholars view it as a maturational change, that is, the group is genetically programmed to improve its already superior verbal skills with age.
Does Seligman speak from personal experience? Based on pro-rating the Wechsler scores he describes in his book, I estimated he has a verbal IQ of 146 (white norms) and a Performance IQ of 98!
Pumpkin Person 