Update 1:27 pm Eastern: Back in 2016, the last poll I looked at before the election was Rasmussen which showed Hillary up by a couple percentage points nationally (which was technically accurate since she won the popular vote). I figured Biden was doing way better against Trump than Hillary did, so to my surprise, Biden is leading only 1 point: 48% vs 47%.
Update 2:22 pm Eastern: The Washington Post reports:
Biden leads Trump by 10 percentage points nationally, 52 percent to 42 percent, according to an average of national polls since Oct. 26. Biden’s margin in the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin is nine points. It’s five points in Pennsylvania, five in North Carolina, four in Arizona and three in Florida.
Update 8:43 pm Eastern With 49% of the vote in, Biden is beating Trump in Ohio 55% to 44%. No Republican in modern times has ever won without Ohio.
Update 9:06 pm Eastern Biden beating Trump 73 to 48 electoral votes. 270 needed to win.
Update 9:27 pm Eastern Both men tied at 49.3% in Texas
Update 9:43 pm Eastern Looks like Biden’s lead in Ohio has shrunk down to 49.5% to 49.2%.
Update 10:04 pm Eastern Trump now leading in Ohio: 50.8% vs 47.9%
Update 10:16 pm Eastern Trump now leading in 3 of 4 battleground states
Update 10:25 pm Eastern Trump now leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. Biden leading Arizona. This is disturbing because the polls predicted Biden was ahead in all of these places.
Nov 4, 2020
Update 2:18 pm Eastern: All Biden has to do now to hit 270 is maintain his lead in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Pumpkin Person is now officially calling the race for Joe Biden. He will be the next President of the United States.