The U.S. black white IQ gap has been about 1 standard deviation (σ) since WWI (Jensen 1998, Pumpkin Person 2016). How much of this can be explained by biology?

Well we know the brain size gap is about 1.08 σ (at least as of 1980) (Pumpkin Person 2024)

The gap in polygenic education scores between U.S. whites and Nigerians is 1.6 σ (Piffer, June 4, 2020), however because U.S. blacks are about a quarter white genetically (Bryc et al. 2015), we can arguably reduce this by a quarter to 1.2 σ.

In other words, the U.S. black-white gap in brain size, polygenic education level, and IQ are all about 1 σ.

Predicting the black-white IQ gap from brain size & genetic education

Polygenic education scores now explain about 8.7% of the variation in Peabody verbal scores (Okbay et al 2022) suggesting a correlation of 0.29 (the square root of 8.7%), but since vocabulary tests “only” correlate 0.74 with general intelligence ( McCrea & Robinson, 2011) we can arguably divide this correlation by 0.74 and estimate that polygenic education scores (at least the best ones), much like brain size, correlate about 0.4 with IQ.

So knowing both phenotypic brain size and genetic education both correlate about 0.4 with phenotypic IQ, how well do these variables predict the U.S. black-white IQ gap?

Well assuming these two variables are independent, aside from their shared correlation with IQ, we’d expect them to correlate about 0.16 with each other (the product of their shared 0.4 correlation with IQ) and thus each would independently correlate 0.37 with IQ.

In other words:

Phenotypic IQ gap = 0.37(phenotypic brain size gap) + 0.37(genetic education gap)

Phenotypic IQ gap = 0.37(1.08 σ ) + 0.37(1.2 σ)

Phenotypic IQ gap = 0.4σ + 0.44σ

Phenotypic IQ gap = 0.84 σ

In other words, about 84%, or 13 of the 15 point U.S. black-white IQ gap can be explained by known biology. Of course that doesn’t prove it’s 84% genetic as the phenotypic brain size gap could be at least partly environmental in origin.

Jensen predicted 80% of the variation in adult IQ was explained by genes and the remaining 20% was explained by biological environment. Jensen’s default hypothesis thus predicts √ 80% = 89% of the 15 point gap (13 points) will ultimately be explained by DNA, and the remaining 2 points will probably be explained by racial differences in prenatal environment.