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Tag Archives: bar-exam

Revisiting Kamala Harris’s IQ

17 Thursday Oct 2024

Posted by pumpkinperson in Uncategorized

≈ 11 Comments

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bar-exam, kamala-harris, LSAT, politics

Of America’s 76 million baby boomers (alive or dead), only three grew up to be President of the United States (so far). If we crudely assume being President is the pinnacle of power, the Presidency puts you at the top one in 25 million level. The median U.S. president would therefore be at the one in 50 million level in power (normalized Z = +5.47). Very tentative data suggests the average IQ of U.S. Presidents is 137 (+2.47), thus suggesting the regression slope predicting IQ from power = +0.45 (very similar to the correlation between IQ and lifetime income).

Biodemographic prediction

As of 2019, there were about 65 million Americans in Generation X, and assuming they resemble Americans as a whole, about 1.8% are Afro-multiracial, which gives 1.17 million people. On a scale where white Americans average IQ 100 with a standard deviation of 15, black Americans average 85, and “pure” U.S. blacks average 80, Afromultiracials would average about 90. If there were a perfect correlation between IQ and power, we’d expect Kamala Harris to have an IQ 72 points higher (one in 1.17 million) than the average Afromultiracial, however since the correlation is only 0.45, we’d expect her to be 72(0.45) = 32 points above the average IQ 90 Afromultiracial, or roughly 122. If true this would put her intelligence in the superior range, though the lower end there of.

However guessing someone’s IQ from only their race and power is unwise. What is needed is actual test data.

Psychometric confirmation?

Harris has no publicly known IQ scores so we’ll have to settle for the bar exam as a crude measure of her intelligence.

Snopes.com reports:

So she scored lower than 72.2% of California law students, suggesting she was in the bottom 27.8% of law students. However the LA Times reports:

So when we subtract that 4,909 people like Harris who took the test the first time, we see 2,088 were repeat test takers (which Harris would become the next year). How many of the repeat takers passed like Harris would the next year? Subtract 72.2% of 4,909 from 59.5% of 6,997. In other word, 619 out of 2,088 or the top 30%.

So despite being in the bottom 27% of all law students for not passing the first time, Harris was in the top 30% of that bottom 27% for not failing a second time. In other words she’d be around the 19th percentile of law students.

“The average national LSAT score for full-time, first-year JD enrollees for fall 2022 was about 159” according to bestcolleges.com. The 19th percentile would be 0.87 standard deviations less so about 150 given the SD on the LSAT is 10. A 150 LSAT would equate to an IQ of 111 or roughly 116 (U.S. norms) in Harris’s day when the average IQ of college grads and by extension, LSAT takers was higher. This converts to 114 using white norms, so 8 points lower than expected for America’s most powerful hybridized black, but still higher than 82% of white Americans.

Of course the Bar exam is not an actual IQ test so this remains only a rough guestimate.

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