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Commenter “Another William Playfair Web” asked me to estimate the IQ of Donald Trump’s chief spokesperson Katrina Pierson, and was especially interested in predicting it from her worldly success, as I had done with other luminaries.
As the fiercely articulate face of Donald Trump, a man who has revolutionized American politics and is the Republican front-runner for President, Pierson has suddenly leapfrogged over the competition to become, arguably, the most powerful black conservative in America. All this from a woman who is not yet 40!
So what is her IQ?
I estimate there are about 31 million American adults who would be socially classified as black, and it seems about 10% are Republicans (assuming those who don’t vote would have the same politics as those who do). Thus Pierson is the most powerful out of 3.1 million black adult conservatives, giving her a normalized Z of +5 when it comes to power.
Assuming the correlation between IQ and power is about 0.4 (and I base that on the fact that U.S. Presidents seem no more than 40% as extreme in IQ as America’s smartest adult) then we’d expect Pierson’s Z score for IQ to be only 40% as high as her Z score for power:
Pierson zIQ = +5(0.4)
Pierson zIQ = +2
Thus we’d expect Pierson’s IQ to be 2 standard deviations above the black conservative IQ mean.
Let’s assume black conservatives have a mean IQ of 78 (U.S. white norms) with a standard deviation of 15, The true standard deviation is probably a bit lower than 15, but given that distributions, even for deviation IQs, tend to have fat tails, it’s best to err on the high side.
Thus Pierson’s expected IQ would be 2(15) + 78 = 108
White ancestry
Because Pierson has light skin and Caucasoid features, we might very crudely guess she’s about 75% white. Her mother is white, and I suspect her black father was largely white too. According to scholar Richard Lynn, “blacks” who are almost all white, have IQs 10 points higher than the average African American (who is almost all black).
Thus, we could very crudely add 10 points to Pierson’s expected IQ, bringing her to 118 (U.S. white norms), or roughly 120.
Idea Density
Commenter “Another William Playfair Web” also wanted to estimate Pierson’s IQ from “Idea Density” (ID) as I had done with Oprah. “Idea Density” has never, to my knowledge, been formally correlated with IQ but is seen as a measure of overall neurological and cognitive functioning. I have used the concept only sparingly, because my sense is that it only strongly predicts intelligence under very controlled standardized conditions (such as the famous nun study).
One such standardized controlled set of conditions occurred when Time.com asked a sample of the most powerful women in business to submit to a Q&A, most of whom responded by email. It turns out that Pierson also participated in a similar Q&A for a different publication. I copied and pasted Pierson’s answers, ran them through a computer (with bracketed fill-in words provided by the editor removed and multi-word names replaced with place holders) and found she clocked in 0.525, which using the age adjusted norms for the powerful business women, equated to an IQ of 120.
It was nice to see this independent method confirm the very crude statistical prediction made above, from her status as the most powerful black conservative, but given that Pierson was not answering the same questions as the reference group from Time.com, and given that she answered by speech, and most of them answered by email, this score should be treated with great caution.
An IQ of 120 is very high, making Pierson smarter than 90% of white America. It’s worth noting that the average SAT (reading + math) at her alma mater (the University of Texas at Dallas) is an impressive 1261, which according to my formula, equates to an IQ of 126 (U.S. norms) which is 124 (U.S. white norms). Because of possible affirmative action, I’d expect black students there to average well below this on the SAT. On the other hand, Pierson not only attended, but she graduated, and with a degree in STEM (even I don’t have a STEM degree :-)) so this likely cancels out any affirmative action edge.
Based on how fluently Pierson defends her boss from tough questioning in the media, it is tempting to think her IQ might be 130 or even 140, but we must remember that there’s a big difference between a great talker and a brilliant mind. But at the very least, Pierson is very bright and great at her job. Let’s watch her in action:
Thanks for this analysis/estimation.
I’ve followed her career since she ran for Congress in 2014, and was very intrigued.
She was a lay person, some type of medical technician with a bachelor’s degree in biology, if I recall from my online research, joined the tea party, and is perhaps is the most influential lay person to join the tea party. That’s why I gave her such a high Z-score.
I suppose that she is in different generations as compared to these two; but what about Clarence Thomas, or Ben Carson (Trump’s VP?- http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/03/19/ben-carson-actively-lobbying-trump-vp/) or of course the, at least according to CNN BELOVED Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.
It would seem that they are more influential than her; which would mean her Z-Score is slightly less.
What do you think?
I think she’s the most influential black conservative RIGHT NOW because she’s constantly on TV speaking for him, defending him, and making him a bit more palatable to blacks and women. The trajectory of U.S. history could hinge on how competently she does her job
But power and influence are hard to measure scientifically so it’s a debatable point.
Well, I think she’s going to be even more important in the future, too.
The Trump phenomenon is not going anywhere.
I say she will Press Secretary to the President Trump, if he is elected(probably be the highest ranking black in Trump’s cabinet, with the exception of perhaps Ben Carson), or she succeeds in getting elected to congress.
…but thanks again for doing this 🙂
You’re very welcome. Thanks for suggesting her!
It’s quite depressing, and a bit insulting, when a black African such as myself, has to contend with a 75%, genetically white woman, who is called black.
Depressing, because this behavior I find most common in black Americans – I didn’t expect this from you, who I’d assume to know better. Black Americans tend to already fall under this inferiority complex, specifically black women through weaves. Their obsession with lighter skin, both positive and negative, and adopting the one-drop rule.
The most cringing factor is their belief that race is JUST skin color, which here you clearly identify her strong Caucasian features. Considering her skull archetype, it is OBJECTIVELY so that she is NOT black.
This is dishonest. It’s social pandering to the lowest degree, and it has to be insulting to the white parent.
She is mixed. She is not black – never will be.
But what do I know? I’m just another black conservative that isn’t privileged enough to have evolutionary novel ideas, apparently.
Ryan-
She’s rare. It seems black conservatives come from the South, and hence are more black than others. Katrina is a rare case.
If you’re concerned about the ‘black conservatives have an average IQ of 78’, this blog contends that conservatives of all races have intellects lower than liberals and moderates in their race, at least in the United States.
Black conservatives have a ton of emotional fortitude/emotional ability/executive ability.
pumpkinperson-
Speaking of “emotional fortitude”,
when you get a chance could you briefly explain to me the difference between executive function and cognition (IQ)? I’ve been looking into the effects of my Generalized Anxiety Disorder medication’s effect on “cognition”, with studies showing between a +0.01 correlation of actually receieving the dosage to placebo, to -0.125, depending on source. The range was small on the first, but larger on the second of course.
Thanks!
pumpkinperson-
Speaking of “emotional fortitude”;
I was wondering, when you get the time if you could explain to me the difference between executive function and cognition? I was wondering because I wanted to know in with greater certainty/detail what the effects of my Generalized Anxiety Medication (remember your Genetic Interests 🙂 ) has on my cognition (or mainly executive function). From what I found on web, the correlation between actually taking the does of my medication as opposed to placebo ranged from -0.125 to 0.01, with variance being larger on the further.
I also found on the web the IQ tests actually measure executive function at 0.30 correlation, so, multiplying the correlation by 0.30 to find the actual cause of the drugs on cognition.
There is so much on the web that is
difficult to wade through, so I was just
wondering if you knew a lot
I just want to check that I understand this.
I just started taking in January, some may not know that.
Thanks!
Black republicans are very strong people, Ryan.
Even if this blog doesn’t know much on that subject I’m pretty sure that’s true!
Although I do not agree with her boss on most issues, Katrina Pierson is a great example story of the American Dream.
(from my web research) She was born to a racial minority father and teenage mother in poverty, in the Mid-West. Katrina Pierson attended the University of Texas at Austin, but became pregnant early on (second year there?), and was forced to leave with only a two-year degree. Struggling to be dependent from an abusive husband, she and another young woman would steal clothes to wear for a job interview and be arrested, charged and convicted (plead guilty) of a minor-level crime. Katrina would eventually leave her husband, and raise her son on her own, while completing a Bachelors’ degree in biology. Pierson would join the tea party, lead the North Texas chapter, and volunteer for rising Tea Party star, the now famous Sen. Ted Cruz. Pierson, with Cruz’s backing would run for the U.S. House in 2014, but narrowly lose in a close primary. Many residents in her district are now disappointed with that congressman’s weak immigration stances.
Pierson has also served as a conservative commentator, eventually becoming the Spokesman for Donald Trump, the leading GOP presidential contender.
Yea, I was about to ask, doesn’t she have some type of criminal past? That seems like major points off (given that criminals score about 10 points lower than the general population).
I decided to ignore her shoplifting arrest for simplicity. It was only a petty crime, and not much different from the average black from a bad neighborhood.
Wow, I re-read that comment above and see that she was also pregnant in her second year of college! Very prole/ghetto. Kinda disturbing, almost. Well, at least it seems she turned her life around…
ruhkukah-
Her son was born, it seems, between March and August 1996; http://rare.us/story/katrina-pierson-and-her-story-are-what-the-republican-party-desperately-needs/
,when Katrina was 20. He was probably born in the summer, after she got her degree. Katrina managed to complete her A.S. or A.A. in biology before giving birth to her son, who was actually probably born that summer.
She was responsible enough not to drop out, but rather get a two year degree, which I assume, helped her with credits in going back to College.
I often times wonder if people from a rough upbringing cherish the children they had at young ages, for the small age gap makes them more close. It also seem to give them solace/motivation in tough times; Just a thought.
I see the comments section oisnt what it used to be anymore.
I love the comment section. If it weren’t for their smart, knowledgeable, curious, provocative and crazy comments, this blog would lose much of its readership.
trump will win, but it may be close. he will win every state in the former confederacy and every state in the great plains. that’s not enough, but he may also win new york and every rocky mountain state. it may be a replay of bush v gore 2000. i’m crossing my fingers. with only 8 on the supreme court there will be a “constitutional crisis.” awesome.
if sanders wins 57% of the remaining delegates he will win a majority of “pledged delegates” and the democratic party won’t undo this with its super delegates.
but the polls say that that won’t happen.
oops, i meant …”constitutional crisis”.…
But Hispanics might vote against him in droves & they’re decisive in many states.
Not sure how he’ll do with blacks. He might do better than most Republicans because of his hip-hop style and because illegal immigration harms poor blacks. On the other hand, he may do worse because he’s perceived as a racist and that scares all minorities, including Jews.
Do you think Obama was good for blacks?
trump will win the latino vote.
trump will win the latino vote
In the general election? Hell no.
America should not let itself be held hostage by one ethnic group whose vote needs to be won. Just my view from Denmark, where >85 percent back Trump..
it’s noteworthy that my excel “evolutionary algorithm” always recommends a scandinavian ETF (including finland’s EFNL) as part of an optimal portfolio…
and that it never recommends the stocks of any other part of the world.
socialism is good for capitalists too!
EDEN also has the distinction of being 35% health care…led by novo nordisk…
of course norway and finland’s markets are led by statoil and nokia.
and iceland isn’t “investable” unless you’re very rich.
sweden, on the other hand, has “investor ab”.
also very interesting…the mass media is slowly but surely coming around to trump…
1. many of them are “getting it”.
2. he’s a natural entertainer. they admire that.
they’re “adapting”, and they may have some desire to see trump v clinton without any third party candidates.
Trump vs Hillary & Trump as president is good for the media’s ratings. But the media, and those who own it, have other agendas too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/humanbody/sleep/sheep/reaction_version5.swf
Cool game. Though it would be better if they had more trials and if they offered not only your mean time, but the variance, since the latter is more negatively correlated with IQ than the former.
I was average, i’m not a speed thinker, just and/or specially at emotional levels, for manipulation, i have high-speed emotional intelligence and low-speed cognitive and unfamiliar reasoning.
OT: Have you done Rob Ford? I can’t remember you doing so and his death today would make a upcoming one timely 🙂
As an Ontarian, I thank you for thinking of Rob Ford. It might be insensitive to try to estimate his IQ at this time, but a brief post about him would be appropriate.
so sanders in on track to get that 57% i posted on previously…
i changed my registration just so i could vote for bernie…
from independent to democrat…
my only objection to bernie is that he’s a smelly jew…
but he is from the state with the only charterhouse in north america (meaning panama to canada)…https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charterhouse_of_the_Transfiguration
and my “spirituality” is decidedly carthusian.
It seems Katrina Pierson will be in the news heavily coming up
http://www.salon.com/2016/03/25/trump_spokeswoman_katrina_pierson_tweets_unconvincing_non_denial_of_involvement_in_cruzsexscandal/
LOL! Good find.
the murmurings on this scandal, from what I saw, implicated her in a relationship with Ted Cruz.
If it wasn’t for regression to the mean, they could have sired a President.
Lol
ugh………………………………………..
Joking 🙂
Oh wow she was implicated in this, too. Interesting.
IQ revision?
We’ll if she survives this. If she gets kicked to the curb I may have to remove points, unless she makes a comeback with a hit reality show :-). Maybe I should have listened to ruhkukah who suggested a deduction for her shoplifting arrest.
pumpkinperson-
Speaking of “emotional fortitude”;
I was wondering, when you get the time
if you could explain to me the difference
between executive function and cognition?
I was wondering because I wanted to know
with greater certainty/detail what the
effects of my Generalized Anxiety Medication
(remember your genetic interests 🙂 )
has on my cognition (or mainly executive
function). From what I found on the web,
the correlation between actually taking the
doses of medication as opposed to placebo
ranged from -0.125 to 0.01, with variance
being larger on the further.
I also found on the web the IQ tests actually
measutre executive function at 0.30 correlation,
so, multiplying the correlation by 0.30
to find the actual cause of the drugs on
cognition.
There is so much on the web that is
difficult to wade through, so I was just
wondering if you knew a lot?
I just want to check that I understand
this.
I just started taking in January, some may
not know that.
I also submitted this under another email, but the same name.
Thanks!
I was wondering, when you get the time
if you could explain to me the difference
between executive function and cognition?
Yes, I’ll do a quick post on it this month, but briefly, executive function is largely a type of cognition.
I have a documented 151 IQ, and from vast experience I would estimate her at a MINIMUM 140. She is extremely sharp, and navigates unfriendly territory extremely quickly, and in a amazing manner.
Politicians have a life time to practice dodging questions, and using word play on the dumbed down public. Katrina is asked extremely difficult questions, and does not beat around them at all. She takes them head on, and makes the interviewer seem extremely stupid in the process. These professional interviewers have the intellect of children in her presence. Extremely fun to watch.
IQ is largely processing speed. The time it takes for her to process a difficult question, and spit out an extremely intelligent and detailed response is pretty much 0. Shes completely on point.
another BS article.
I am the only living person who has been written a book that is unique. Of all the persons living this is 1/7.5 billion, so I must have an iq of around 500, since with this very, very, very low frequency I must be found at the far far right tail of the Gauss-La Place curve. LOL.