The New York Times magazine reports:
By the spring of 1985, with a 9-year-old Tao splitting time between high school and nearby Flinders University, Billy and Grace took him on a three-week American tour to seek advice from top mathematicians and education experts. On the Baltimore campus of Johns Hopkins, they met with Julian Stanley, a Georgia-born psychologist who founded the Center for Talented Youth there. Tao was one of the most talented math students Stanley ever tested — at 8 years old, Tao scored a 760 on the math portion of the SAT — but Stanley urged the couple to keep taking things slow and give their son’s emotional and social skills time to develop.
On page 422 of the book The Bell Curve it’s estimated that if virtually all American 17-yea-olds had taken the SAT in 1983 (not just the college bound ones), the mean math score would have been 411. On page 425 a graph estimates that if all American 17-year-olds had taken the SAT in 1983, only about 0.7% would have scored 700+.
Assuming a roughly normal distribution, these two statistics imply that in 1983, if all 17-year-olds took the SAT, the math standard deviation would be 117.
Thus Tao at about age 8.8, scored 2.98 standard deviations above the average U.S. 17-year-old.
I don’t know where this would put him compared to U.S. 8.8 year-olds on the math SAT, but on the WISC-R IQ test, U.S. 8.67-8.997 year-olds who score in the top 37% of U.S. 16.67-16.997-year-olds on Arithmetic (the subtest most similar to the math SAT) narrowly make the top 0.4% among their own age group. This suggests an age bonus of 2.33 standard deviations.
Thus Tao, was likely 5.31 standard deviations above the U.S. mean for his age, suggesting a math IQ of 180 (U.S. norms) and also 180 (U.S. white norms). Assuming roughly normal distributions, only about one in 21 million Americans should have math IQs this high or higher.
Pumpkin Person 
That seems roughly in line with his performance in the IMO.
https://www.imo-official.org/participant_r.aspx?id=1581
In 1988 when he was thirteen, no American scored higher than him in the individual results.
In 1987, two Americans did.
In 1986, six Americans did.
Given roughly four million Americans per year and roughly four years of eligibility in the IMO, he was the best of sixteen million Americans in 1988 (despite being 13).
Off topic:
What about longevity vs. IQ? persons such as Leopold Vietoris, Jeanne Calment, Sarah Knauss. What would be their IQ?
Wow, that would be interesting. I want to see Pumpkin estimate IQs based on longevity, given the high correlation.
I also wanna see estimates of other supposed high-IQ geniuses based on real-world accomplishments, like Chris Langan, Rick Rosner, Marilyn vos Savant, etc…
Definitely Chis Langan. I know a lot about him.
also interesting, del toro and mortensen had no children.
del toro never married and mortensen married once and divorced…at a time when divorce was uncommon.
never married and childless women are the most over-represented group among super centenarians. nun is the longest lived occupational category. but monks live a long time too.
extreme long life is a great example of the general rule that…
success and virtue go together sometimes, but success and vice at other times.
or, put another way,
in order to be a world beater at anything one must be un-usual in other ways…
and those other ways may be viewed as failures or vices by one’s society.
Yes, the correlation between IQ and life span fascinates me, because like the correlation between IQ and money and the correlation between IQ and desirable occupation, it validates the idea that intelligence is the adaptive ability to turn situations around to your advantage and that it had Darwinian implications: survival of the fittest.
Of course, some suspect (well, namely Jayman) that the correlation between IQ and longevity isn’t because of behavior or adapting, but because of underlying genetic quality.
Just like some suspect the IQ-income correlation is because of education and not adaptability in the real world
But with respect to longevity, there is research showing IQ is negatively correlated to death in accidents
But with respect to longevity, there is research showing IQ is negatively correlated to death in accidents
Yes, I’ve seen some research on that.
Given roughly four million Americans per year and roughly four years of eligibility in the IMO, he was the best of sixteen million Americans in 1988 (despite being 13).
Excellent analysis!
What do you think should be done with stupid people? Do you hate , feel pity, want the best for them? Do you think it would be better and more efficient if we wiped them out or genetically engineered them? Note that I’m not talking about evil people but just dumb people exclusively.
I’m imagining that if you just genetically alter people by there own choosing there could be too much overpopulation if we let them survive with 7 billion people. But if we wipe out all/95% of dumb people do you think that would be a better option?
I’m not all for killing low IQ people but I wanted to hear your take on it. I’m ambivalent on this issue- I get cynical and think “Why don’t we just kill all stupid and defective people?” but I think there’s also a much more hopeful way of doing things.
I think we should have compassion for them. We’re all dumb compared to someone.
”They” don’t ask to born this way, ”we” are lucky specimen. Even the most monstruous psychopath. Early bio-intrusive intervention in this cases will be by now the best method.
AND kindness is absolutely superior from whatever what you guys understand as intelligence. Kindness and intelligence but without the left-hillside, which are complete passive or ignorant about devil, is the absolute best combination of all.
“Dumb” people still are useful due to comparative advantage. You want individuals to fit into their place in society in a market style manner, and that will lead to people sorting themselves into an incrementally productive area over time.
We don’t need 130IQs picking up the trash or dropping off your mail, but in a society restricted to top half of today’s bell curve, that’s what we would have. It may make people feel better when served by an intelligent female waitress, but if she’s bright enough work in a corporate environment, then society overall is better off if our service industry is populated by lower IQ (and pleasant) staff.
http://www.medfriendly.com/standardscoretopercentileconversion.html
Santiago Gonzalez is 155
From looking at what Chris Langan has done (CTMU). He is 155. At best he understands self modifying code. To him Inflation (cosmology) begins as a seed of code. Terence Tao in comparison if he is 180 from what I know is a physicist. His job requires high statistical understanding. If we were to compare them Langan understand meta linguistics well Tao would understand higher dimensional spacial relationships. From what I now know if the fifth dimension was a cube and the third dimension was a rubber band, When the rubber band stretches it creates time which is the fourth dimension (a cone). As the what Nikola Tesla discovered which was the Aether. Space is not expanding, instead the third dimension as a rubber band is actually being infused with energy from the fifth dimension. 3D Space is flat for the same reason beads on a necklace are linear. When the rubber band stretches more beads are added to it and so this creates a vacuum which is the source of gravity (the pull between atoms). And all the other forces. Because energy is added to the system entropy increases and galaxies form super clusters. And electromagnetism is following the path of least resistance. A magnet is coherent (like a laser) to the lines of force (which is actually vacuum energy) generated from the Aether. Now my analogy is really just a simplification. A 1D image cannot demonstrate every aspect of a 3D object. A 1D object cannot comprehend a 2D mobius strip. So even 4D objections are beyond our visual comprehension and the 5th dimension is even stranger. I don not think Langan has the best understanding of physics. And Terrance Tao to me does have a enormous capacity to understand the probabilistic nature of physics. (such as how likely is it that a kilogram of water will explode). But to me higher dimensions do not fold into lower dimensions. What I understand is that lower dimensions unfold into higher dimensions and this is why they have problems with sting theory. If they could think at the fifth dimensional level they would see that just as a 2D computer chip can project into 3D. The mind can visualize 4D and 5D objects. I believe this is how Kurt Godels proof of God works. Time is a fractal loop that branches not only into the future but also back to the root of all existence. When the crown chakra is opened your mind becomes that fractal loop and you experience all your past lives just as Siddhartha Gautama did. Langan only understands time as a recursive algorithm but not the Retrocausality aspect of reality. And Terrence Tao along with Michio Kaku and everyone at Cern still think time is linear. If they understood the non linearity of time they would understand that dimensions fold outward then inward. And paradoxically Introversion is when your brain folds inward to gain the awareness of what is outside the self.
Langan is a fraud, make note that langan is a self proclaimed genius there are no accomplished people willing to endorse him.
His paper in cmtu was shredded apart by the scientific community for being a shitty philosophy paper with no actual scientific content. filled with poor grammar intended to fill up space rather than concise sentences and filled with circular reasoning.
His excuses for dropping out of college are i had perfect sat scores (take note that his self proclaimed perfect sats have never been verified) I but only applied to 2 shitty schools and then failed out because my teachers couldn’t understand my brilliant mind also I was poor and my mom forgot to sign a note the administration lost my application my car suspensuon broke etc…
In fact his entire life has been nothing but making excuses for things he could do but didn’t do. And blaming other people for his failures.
We have plenty of people working in silicon valley that have no degrees who have demonstrated incredible self taught themselves how to code.
We have guys with no formal education inventing things and getting patents.
keep in mind that his parents we’re also dummies so the probability of them producing offspring with 200 iq are astronomically. Low.
Langan is nothing but a lie created by liberal shitheads like Malcolm by gladwell that want to promote their agenda that there is no such things as genes and race and environment is the only things that matter, the ultimate anti hbd agenda.
You don’t give him any credit for scoring so high on the Mega Test? That test was a big deal in its day, even attracting such luminaries as Marilyn vos Savant and John Sununu
keep in mind that his parents we’re [sic] also dummies so the probability of them producing offspring with 200 iq are astronomically. Low. [sic english is your third language?] [sic his parents weren’t dumb] [sic even if they were the odds wouldn’t be “astronomical”] [sic there’s no such thing as an IQ > 160]
langan is a fraud, but so are you.
but all you need to point out in order to discredit him is that he has a moustache.
but langan does have a ginormous head, and i agreed with his pov as expressed in First Person.
then again 20/20 claimed he had been tested by some credible person and had scored at the ceiling. but 20/20 is like the national inquirer. they’ll lie if it makes a good story.
my latest comment on shoe’s blog under picture and name steve hsu:
“my parents weren’t americans. they came to the US to suck jewish cock, and they taught me.
“arways suck jewish cock”, my dad tord me.
i rove jewish cock.
round eyes merery rove jewish cock.
but i rove it.
every morning i wake up and sink what jewish cock i can suck.”
Yeah, I read about him after watching some talk show. his performance on untimed RAPM at the age of 12 (32/36), based on the 1993 standardization of the RAPM in Des Moines, Iowa, and his mental age, was at list = IQ156,5. For some reasons I think his IQ was higher. Its very interesting, what PP will tell us in his coming posts
Actually, he took Raven’s at age 10. (Source: http://tinyurl.com/guq45kx) What this does to his FSIQ, though, I don’t know.
Oh, thank you. A few days younger than 9 y 10 mns. This leads us to a different IQ, of course
Thanks for the link. I was completely unaware of that. I’ll have to do a post on it to make the series complete.
Sure thing. It’s a fascinating read, particularly the part about Tao’s verbal/math disparity. What do you think of the author’s contention that a 290 on the verbal section at the age of 8 is an impressive score? I find myself doubtful, considering that it’s only 60 points above what a pure guesswork score should work out to. Having taken these tests, I’d be surprised if even a basic, 2nd grade reading ability couldn’t account for those points.
Do you see anything herein that could make you reconsider the math IQ postulated in the above post?
I’ll discuss it in my next post, should be done very very soon
between 170 and 171, or higher
Amazing ..probably among the 20 smartest people alive
17/ 9.83 *100=appr.173. This is his ratio IQ if he did SAT-M as well as an average 17yo American. This = 154,8 deviation IQ, sd15,
if we trust this table http://hiqnews.megafoundation.org/John_Scoville_Paper.htm
154.8 means rarity about – 1/7000
M+2.98sd gives a rarity about 1/650
7000*650=4 550 000
All in all, keeping in mind approximations on every step, this is something closer to IQ176.
But intuitively I feel that a simple multiplication of rarities is not a very bright idea,
Clever analysis, though I try to avoid using the Scoville numbers when I have other options, not because they aren’t excellent, but because ratio IQs can have very different standard deviations and distributions depending on the age and the abilities involved.
🙂 I like your English, PP. Especially how you deal with articles.
btw, they say that in the 2000s Raven published norms for teenagers starting with12yo. (untimed APM) . I failed to find them. Maybe the norms will help you somehow for the case
Thanks for the suggestion
I don’t if anyone has mentioned this in the comment section yet but Terrence Tao along with some other very gifted young(at the time) Australians were studied by Australian psychologist Miraca U. M. Gross. In the reported study at the time these gifted children were referred not by their real name by an pseudonym. Terrence Tao’s pseudonym was Adrian Seng. Well anyway here is some information on how Tao/Seng scored on the SB.
“At the age of 6 years he was assessed on the Stanford-Binet and was
found to have a mental age of 14—a ratio IQ of more than 220.”
Click to access 9781134922505_sample_484842.pdf
That actually comes out to ratio IQ of about 233(14/6 * 100)
Terence also took the Raven Progressive Matrices two months before his 10the birthday. Here is how he scored
“We of the Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth (SMPY) at Johns Hopkins have discovered, chiefly by testing able 12-year-olds, that when the examinee’s SAT-M score vastly exceeds his or her SAT-V score the youth is almost certain to score high on a difficult test of nonverbal reasoning ability such as the Advanced Form of the Raven Progressive Matrices, often higher than a high-M high-V examinee does. To test this out, on 6 May 1985 I administered to Terry the RPM-Advanced, an untimed test. He completed its 36 8-option items in about 45 minutes. Whereas the average British university student scores 21, Terry scored 32. He did not miss any of the last, most difficult, 4 items. Also, when told which 4 items he had not answered correctly, he was quickly able to find the correct response to each. Few of SMPY’s ablest protégés, members of its “700-800 on SAT-M Before Age 13″ group, could do as well. ”
http://www.davidsongifted.org/db/Articles_id_10116.aspx
It should also be pointed out that Terence is still the youngest to win a Bronze, Silver and Gold at the International Mathematical Olympiad.He also won the fields medal at around 31 years of age.
I can’t think of anyone that is currently alive that more deserving of the title “Smartest living human in the world”
How annoying was math for you as a kid? Jesus, too many god damn details, the concepts aren’t difficult.
Pumpkin,even with above average math ability, why would someone with a below average spatial ability take a much longer time to recognize concepts?